TED Talks-Dalia Mogahed: The attitudes that sparked Arab Spring

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Transcript:


My talk today is about somethingmaybe a couple of you have already heard about.It's called the Arab Spring.Anyone heard of it?

(Applause)

So in 2011, power shifted,from the few to the many,from oval offices to central squares,from carefully guarded airwavesto open-source networks.But before Tahrir was a global symbol of liberation,there were representative surveysalready giving people a voicein quieter but still powerful ways.

I study Muslim societies around the world at Gallup.Since 2001,we've interviewed hundreds of thousands of people --young and old, men and women,educated and illiterate.My talk today draws on this researchto reveal why Arabs rose upand what they want now.

Now this region's very diverse,and every country is unique.But those who revoltedshared a common set of grievancesand have similar demands today.I'm going to focus a lot of my talk on Egypt.It has nothing to do with the fact that I was born there, of course.But it's the largest Arab countryand it's also one with a great deal of influence.But I'm going to end by widening the lens to the entire regionto look at the mundane topicsof Arab views of religion and politicsand how this impacts women,revealing some surprises along the way.

So after analyzing mounds of data,what we discovered was this:Unemployment and poverty alonedid not lead to the Arab revolts of 2011.If an act of desperation by a Tunisian fruit vendorsparked these revolutions,it was the difference between what Arabs experiencedand what they expectedthat provided the fuel.

To tell you what I mean,consider this trend in Egypt.On paper the country was doing great.In fact, it attracted accoladesfrom multinational organizationsbecause of its economic growth.But under the surface was a very different reality.In 2010, right before the revolution,even though GDP per capitahad been growing at five percent for several years,Egyptians had never felt worse about their lives.

Now this is very unusual,because globally we find that, not surprisingly,people feel better as their country gets richer.And that's because they have better job opportunitiesand their state offers better social services.But it was exactly the opposite in Egypt.As the country got more well-off,unemployment actually roseand people's satisfactionwith things like housing and education plummeted.But it wasn't just anger at economic injustice.It was also people's deep longing for freedom.Contrary to the clash of civilizations theory,Arabs didn't despise Western liberty,they desired it.

As early as 2001,we asked Arabs, and Muslims in general around the world,what they admired most about the West.Among the most frequent responseswas liberty and justice.In their own words to an open-ended questionwe heard, "Their political system is transparentand it's following democracy in its true sense."Another said it was "liberty and freedomand being open-minded with each other."Majorities as high as 90 percent and greaterin Egypt, Indonesia and Irantold us in 2005that if they were to write a new constitutionfor a theoretical new countrythat they would guarantee freedom of speechas a fundamental right,especially in Egypt.Eighty-eight percent said moving toward greater democracywould help Muslims progress --the highest percentage of any country we surveyed.

But pressed up against these democratic aspirationswas a very different day-to-day experience,especially in Egypt.While aspiring to democracy the most,they were the least likely population in the worldto say that they had actually voiced their opinionto a public official in the last month --at only four percent.So while economic development made a few people rich,it left many more worse off.As people felt less and less free,they also felt less and less provided for.So rather than viewing their former regimesas generous if overprotective fathers,they viewed them as essentially prison wardens.

So now that Egyptians have ended Mubarak's 30-year rule,they potentially could bean example for the region.If Egypt is to succeedat building a society based on the rule of law,it could be a model.If, however,the core issues that propelled the revolution aren't addressed,the consequences could be catastrophic --not just for Egypt,but for the entire region.

The signs don't look good, some have said.Islamists, not the young liberals that sparked the revolution,won the majority in Parliament.The military councilhas cracked down on civil society and protestsand the country's economy continues to suffer.Evaluating Egypt on this basis alone, however,ignores the real revolution.Because Egyptians are more optimisticthan they have been in years,far less divided on religious-secular linesthan we would thinkand poised for the demands of democracy.

Whether they support Islamists or liberals,Egyptians' priorities for this government are identical,and they are jobs, stability and education,not moral policing.But most of all,for the first time in decades,they expect to be active participants, not spectators,in the affairs of their country.

I was meeting with a group of newly-elected parliamentariansfrom Egypt and Tunisiaa couple of weeks ago.And what really struck me about themwas that they weren't only optimistic,but they kind of struck me as nervous,for lack of a better word.One said to me,"Our people used to gather in cafes to watch football" --or soccer, as we say in America --"and now they gather to watch Parliament."(Laughter)"They're really watching us,and we can't help but worrythat we're not going to live up to their expectations."And what really struck meis that less than 24 months ago,it was the people that were nervousabout being watched by their government.

And the reason that they're expecting a lotis because they have a new-found hope for the future.So right before the revolutionwe said that Egyptians had never felt worse about their lives,but not only that, they thought their future would be no better.What really changed after the ouster of Mubarakwasn't that life got easier.It actually got harder.But people's expectations for their futurewent up significantly.And this hope, this optimism,endured a year of turbulent transition.

One reason that there's this optimismis because, contrary to what many people have said,most Egyptians think things really have changed in many ways.So while Egyptians were knownfor their single-digit turnoutin elections before the revolution,the last election had around 70 percent voter turnout --men and women.Where scarcely a quarter believed in the honesty of elections in 2010 --I'm surprised it was a quarter --90 percent thought that this last election was honest.Now why this mattersis because we discovered a linkbetween people's faith in their democratic processand their faith that oppressed peoplecan change their situationthrough peaceful means alone.

(Applause)

Now I know what some of you are thinking.The Egyptian people,and many other Arabs who've revolted and are in transition,have very high expectations of the government.They're just victims of a long-time autocracy,expecting a paternal stateto solve all their problems.But this conclusion would ignorea tectonic shift taking place in Egyptfar from the cameras in Tahrir Square.And that is Egyptians' elevated expectationsare placed first on themselves.

In the country once known for its passive resignation,where, as bad as things got,only four percent expressed their opinion to a public official,today 90 percent tell usthat if there's a problem in their community,it's up to them to fix it.(Applause)And three-fourthsbelieve they not only have the responsibility,but the power to make change.

And this empowermentalso applies to women,whose role in the revoltscannot be underestimated.They were doctors and dissidents,artists and organizers.A full third of those who braved tanks and tear gas to ask or to demand liberty and justice in Egyptwere women.

(Applause)

Now people have raised some real concernsabout what the rise of Islamist parties means for women.What we've found about the role of religion in lawand the role of religion in societyis that there's no female consensus.We found that women in one countrylook more like the men in that countrythan their female counterparts across the border.Now what this suggestsis that how women view religion's role in societyis shaped more by their own country's culture and contextthan one monolithic viewthat religion is simply bad for women.Where women agree, however,is on their own role,and that it must be central and active.

And here is where we see the greatest gender difference within a country --on the issue of women's rights.Now how men feel about women's rightsmatters to the future of this region.Because we discovered a linkbetween men's support for women's employmentand how many women are actually employedin professional fields in that country.

So the question becomes,What drives men's support for women's rights?What about men's views of religion and law?[Does] a man's opinionof the role of religion in politicsshape their view of women's rights?The answer is no.We found absolutely no correlation,no impact whatsoever,between these two variables.What drives men's support for women's employmentis men's employment,their level of educationas well as a high scoreon their country's U.N. Human Development Index.What this meansis that human development,not secularization,is what's key to women's empowermentin the transforming Middle East.

And the transformation continues.From Wall Street to Mohammed Mahmoud Street,it has never been more importantto understand the aspirations of ordinary people.

Thank you.

(Applause)