Saturday, November 30, 2013

POL/REL/GRalInt-Monopolies, markets and the pope

The following information is used for educational purposes only.




Erasmus

Religion and public policy



Monopolies, markets and the pope


Left, right, left, left


Nov 28th 2013, by B.C.

































ERASMUS wouldn't normally devote two postings in a row to the same person, even the world's most important Christian leader. But this has been a big week for Pope Francis. On Monday, he met(http://www.economist.com/blogs/erasmus) the president of Russia; the following day (though the events are not connected) he issued the most important pastoral pronouncement(http://www.news.va/en/news/pope-issues-first-apostolic-exhortation-evangelii) of his papacy, a document running to over 80 pages entitled Evangelii Gaudium, the Joy of the Gospel.

In many ways, this document will affirm the Argentine pope's reputation as a warm, compassionate figure, with a keen but understanding eye for human failing, who defies easy categorisation. He reaffirms the church's "particular love and concern" for unborn children, but insists that this position is "closely linked to the defence of every other human right." His stress on the "joyful proclamation" of the Christian faith will reassure people inside the church who were starting to fear that the pope was slightly too busy sending emollient messages to those far outside the church, from aggrieved gays to atheist journalists. His style of churchmanship still seems to transcend the familiar distinction between liberal and conservative.


But the same cannot be said about the sections of the document which deal with global economics. In these sections, the ideological position is clear. The passages reflect a particular school of left-wing thought, and they are full of left-wing insights and left-wing blind spots. If they had been written five or six years ago, when the global economy was still galloping along, these passages would have seemed prophetic; published now, they seem a bit stale and one-dimensional. For example, he writes:


Some people continue to defend trickle-down theories which assume that economic growth, encouraged by a free market, will inevitably bring about greater justice and inclusiveness in the world. This opinion, which has never been confirmed by the facts, expresses a crude and naive trust in the goodness of those wielding economic power and in the sacralised workings of the prevailing economic system.

Well, if there are such people, of course they are overstating the case. The whole point about a properly functioning market is that no specific outcome is inevitable, and no winners are pre-determined. Markets should create possibilities, within which moral choices can be made, not iron certainties. Nor do "those wielding economic power" enjoy any permanency of tenure, if the market is operating well. They are perpetually challenged to prove their competence.

As is pointed out by Philip Booth, an economist at the Institute of Economic Affairs, a pro-market think-tank, the critique of capitalism in the papal exhortation is often heard among people "who have experience of the highly regulated, state-controlled pseudo-capitalist systems of South America." But surely there are other varieties of capitalism, whose merits and failings would be worth examining. And whatever makes the more rigid, fossilised economies of the Latin world (where a lot of Catholic thinking is done) into impossible places for young people to make a living, it is certainly not an excess of free-market ideology.

Nobody can disagree with the pope's passionate and heart-felt appeals to remember the people who are "excluded" from the mainstream of social and economic life. But it's also worth recalling that no political system on earth can guarantee the avoidance of "exclusion" in the sense he means, except a totalitarian one, and that is a far worse alternative. Totalitarian regimes, like that of North Korea, do not exclude or forget anybody. They have plans for all their subjects: hard work at low wages for some, death for perceived enemies of the people.

Pope Francis is also right to warn people against "sacralising" an economic system or indeed money itself. But some of the harshest modern tyrannies have been those which concentrate political and economic power so tightly that money does not even circulate in any meaningful, autonomous way. Yes, sacralising any system is bad, precisely because it can render meaningless the values which religious and ethical systems proclaim. But excessively demonising a system can be pretty bad too, especially if it tempts you to sacralise an even worse alternative. Human welfare is determined by moral choices as well as systems, and that is precisely the point which the best parts of this papal document make.







Source: www.economist.com

GRalInt-Religion and public policy-Contesting Saint Andrew

The following information is used for educational purposes only.







Erasmus

Religion and public policy


























































Contesting Saint Andrew


Arguments over an apostle


Nov 30th 2013, by B.C.





TODAY is a big feast day for Scotland, Romania, Cyprus, the Greek port of Patras and for Christians in Istanbul; in 13 days' time, the same feast will be celebrated in places where the old church calendar is kept, such as Russia and Ukraine. And whenever it is observed, the annual feast day of Saint Andrew brings reminders that the first apostle of Jesus Christ, one of two fisherman brothers, can still create political waves.

Take Scotland. Andrew has been that country's official patron saint since 1320, and he was venerated there for centuries before that. The diagonal white cross of Saint Andrew was flying defiantly in Edinburgh today, although yesterday's helicopter crash in Glasgow cast a pall over the commemorations. Alex Salmond, head of the Scottish Nationalists, used the national holiday to stir patriotic feeling(http://www.scotsman.com/news/politics/top-stories/video-alex-salmond-gives-st-andrew-s-day-message-1-3214104) ahead of next year's independence ballot. Even his reaction to the helicopter crash mentioned the saint; he said today was a good moment to take pride in Scotland's resilience. Meanwhile David Cameron has hoisted the Scottish emblem over his prime-ministerial residence in London and issued a Saint Andrew's message(https://www.gov.uk/government/news/st-andrews-day-message-from-david-cameron?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=news-story-st-andrews-day-message-from-david-cameron) with the opposite intention: to remind the Scots of how well they have done as Brits.


Move further east and competition over Andrew gets hotter. Who was he and where did he go? Written evidence about his life is fragmentary, but a church historian, Eusebius, says he preached among the Scythians, north of the Black Sea. Among Slavs, there is a strong tradition that he sailed up the river Dnieper and foresaw that Kiev would be a great Christian city. He is also credited with founding the first church on the shores of Bosporus (ie, modern Istanbul) and it is agreed that he met a martyr's death in Patras. He was stretched out on an X-shaped cross, so the tradition says, because he did not want to die on a cross exactly like the one associated with his master.

At the Patriarchate of Constantinople, an institution which sees Saint Andrew as its founder and protector, grand services were held today; guests included a Catholic cardinal who will have the chance to fine-tune plans for Orthodoxy's senior hierarch, Patriarch Bartholomew, to visit Rome next year. But Saint Andrew's legacy is also claimed by influential people in Moscow. The Apostle Andrew Fund, an NGO run by Russia's powerful railway boss, Vladimir Yakunin, arranged this summer(http://02varvara.wordpress.com/2013/07/16/russians-flock-to-see-the-cross-of-st-andrew-ahead-of-baptism-anniversary/00-cross-of-st-andrew-st-petersburg-patriarch-kirill-vladimir-yakunin-16-07-13/) for a wooden cross, believed to be the one on which the saint was martyred, to be brought from Patras to Russia, Ukraine and Belarus where national leaders, and vast crowds, venerated the holy object. It was an eye-catching affirmation of the bonds between the three Slavic Orthodox lands. At a time when Ukraine's geopolitical destiny is in the balance(http://www.economist.com/blogs/easternapproaches/2013/11/crackdown-kiev) , the celebrations were a way of emphasising Ukraine's eastern links. But remember, there are followers of Andrew to the west of Ukraine too: Romania claims a special link with the saint, and his feast is an old folk festival in Poland.

On Cyprus, too, people feel a bond with the saint, and the name "Andreas" is common. A great monastery in the Turkish-held north of the island is said to mark a spot where the saint landed after his ship went off course; only recently, after years of bitter deadlock, has a deal been struck between the UN, the Greek-Cypriot church and a Turkish agency to carry out urgent repairs on the monastery. But the whereabouts of an ancient likeness of Saint Andrew, one of the mosaics hacked away from the wall of the nearby Kanakaria church in the 1970s, remain a mystery despite the recent restitution to Cyprus of some important pieces of stolen art.

For all his ubiquity, the biblical Andrew is a shadowy figure. In one of a handful of scriptural references, he is the apostle who tells Jesus that five loaves and two fishes won't feed 5,000 people; a miracle soon proves otherwise. Like other widely honoured saints, Andrew himself defies the laws of finitude by appealing to so many people in so many places.






Source: www.economist.com

GralInt-E-cigarettes and aviation

The following information is used for educational purposes only.






Gulliver
Business travel














































E-cigarettes and aviation

Into the vaping zone

Nov 29th 2013

by M.R.

HEATHROW airport has opened what purports to be the world’s first airport “vaping zone” for smokers of e-cigarettes. The room, which is sponsored by a manufacturer of the cigarettes, is in the departure lounge at Terminal 4 and will be restricted to over-18s. The opening marks a softening of Heathrow’s traditional stance as a “smoke-free airport”, though the airport stresses that all forms of smoking remain forbidden everywhere else on the premises.

Non-smokers may consider the new facility an irrelevance, but its introduction underscores the need for clear regulation about the acceptability of e-cigarettes, which vaporise a solution containing nicotine without the toxins from burning tobacco. The devices are—apparently—prohibited on American and European flights. America's Department of Transportation (DoT) announced plans(http://www.dot.gov/briefing-room/us-department-transportation-proposes-ban-use-electronic-cigarettes-aircraft) to ban them in September 2011, but it seems not to have followed up on the move. An investigation(http://www.businessinsider.com/you-cant-smoke-e-cigarettes-in-planes-2013-2) earlier this year by "Business Insider" exposed widespread confusion among regulators. The DoT passed the buck to the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA), the civil aviation regulator, which responded by saying that airlines are free to set their own guidelines. That contravened an earlier insistence(http://www.dot.gov/sites/dot.dev/files/docs/PolicyOnECigarettes.pdf) by the DoT that “smoking of electronic cigarettes is already banned” under existing law. Gulliver is no legal expert, but the legislation cited by the DoT (49 USC § 41706 and 14 CFR Part 252) appears to relate solely to tobacco products, and e-cigarettes do not contain tobacco. It’s all a bit hazy.


So what happens if you start vaping in the skies? Best not to find out. Cloud Nine, a blog about e-cigarettes, has published a non-exhaustive list of airlines that ban the devices(http://cloudnine.hillarymilesproductions.com/electronic-cigarettes/smoking-your-electronic-cigarette-on-an-airplane) . It could not identify one single carrier that permits them (Ryanair’s allowance of smokeless cigarettes does not qualify, as they are vapour-free). This has not stopped one e-cigarette manufacturer, Vapestick, publishing guidance(http://www.vapestick.co.uk/electronic-cigarettes-on-planes.html) on “getting away with” vaping during flights–a practice which they insist “isn’t illegal”. Reasoning with cabin crew about the lack of smoke is one approach mentioned. If that fails, try vaping in the toilets. (Gulliver suspects this is already commonplace: the vapour produced by e-cigarettes can set off smoke alarms, but often does not.)

It is clear why airlines are not keen on the practice. Health and safety is not the issue. Much like Wetherspoons, a British pub chain, airlines worry that the sight of people puffing away will cause discomfort and confusion. Arguments could easily erupt, and less observant passengers may deduce that lighting up a real cigarette is now acceptable. Proponents of e-cigarettes claim that they are “fake cigarettes” with no discernible dangers to smokers or people nearby. That may be true, but fake guns do not cause any harm, and you are not allowed to wave them around on planes. Yet whereas the industry’s stance seems reasonable, the lack of guidance coming from civil aviation authorities is less excusable. Now that "vaping" is creeping into airports, the scope for confusion will only grow. This is one area where both passengers and airlines should welcome more regulation.





Source: www.economist.com

ENV/GralInt-The paper industry and climate change-Roll on the green revolution-A technological fix is proposed to combat global warming

The following information is used for educational purposes only.








The paper industry and climate change


Roll on the green revolution

A technological fix is proposed to combat global warming


Nov 30th 2013




























TECHNOLOGY and greenery don’t mix well. Some greens are technophobes. Most environmental policies focus on prices, consumption and subsidies to solar and wind power, which are not at the cutting edge. The list of technological breakthroughs is short. One of the most promising is carbon capture and storage, which neutralises emissions of carbon dioxide from burning fossil fuels. A big project was being built at Mongstad in Norway—but the Norwegian government has just pulled the plug on it.

All the more reason, then, to look with interest—and a measure of scepticism—at an effort by European pulp and paper companies to slash their emissions through technological change. This week they announced some ideas which, if adopted by the whole industry, would cut its energy use by at least a quarter and its output of CO2 by more than half by 2050. The ideas will test how far technology developed by companies can reduce global warming.


Pulp and paper is a big energy consumer—the world’s fifth-largest industrial user. The World Resources Institute, a think-tank, put the industry’s CO2 emissions at about 500m tonnes worldwide in 2005. However, European companies are relatively green: the Confederation of European Paper Industries (CEPI), a trade association, says its members’ emissions were 46m tonnes in 2011. Pulp mills in under-regulated places also produce disgusting gunk. A mill on the pristine shores of Lake Baikal, in Russia, has been dumping bleach into the world’s biggest body of (once) freshwater for many years.

Facing demands for deep cuts in CO2 emissions, CEPI decided to see if technological change could yield more than just marginal improvements. It set up two teams of scientists and businesspeople, each under a former chief executive (of Smurfit Kappa, the fourth-largest European papermaker, and Mondi, the fifth). The teams set up a common knowledge base because the idea was to test creativity, not proprietary information. They also sought ideas from outsiders with carbon-reduction programmes, such as Tata Steel. Each team came up with four ideas. On November 27th a jury chose a winner.

To make paper, you either grind woodchips mechanically to separate the fibres, or cook them with chemicals to remove the lignin, which binds the fibres together. You then dissolve the fibres in vast quantities of water and push them through a slit into a machine that squeezes out the water and dries the sheets.

The winning proposal would do away with all this grinding and chemical cooking. Instead, it would use things called deep eutectic solvents to dissolve wood and separate out the lignin. These solvents occur naturally: plants produce them during droughts. They would essentially turn papermaking into a biochemical business, cutting primary energy use by 40%. They would also generate useful by-products, such as pure lignin, a raw material for bulk chemicals, and a form of cellulose used in high-value chemicals. One of the requirements of the project was that the ideas should add value, not just cut cost.

Most of the energy now used in making paper goes on drying the sheets. So making it without water would also cut energy consumption. The teams came up with two ways of doing that. One would separate the fibres with steam (using less water). The other would suspend the fibres in a viscous fluid and then expel the fluid by modifying the viscosity around the fibres. This idea has been pinched from penguins. To escape from seals underwater, the birds release trapped air bubbles which form a thin layer of air around their plumage, reducing friction.

At the moment these ideas exist as pilot projects or in the laboratory, but not commercially. The most important test of their usefulness is therefore yet to be passed.

Even so, several lessons have emerged. The main one is that there are technological solutions to climate change. “We were amazed at what we found,” says CEPI’s Marco Mensink. Some of the ideas not only cut emissions but take energy-intensive firms into new areas—biochemicals, in the case of pulp and paper. Next, companies can do lot about climate change themselves. They do not need to wait for a nudge from governments, although CEPI also wants the European Union to put some money where its mouth is and support more basic research.

Last, the project was unusual in that companies collaborated over technology. Normally they compete. The pulp and paper firms managed to work together by confining their efforts to “generic pre-competitive concepts”—ie, basic breakthroughs. The hope is that they will now compete to implement them.









Source: www.economist.com/From the print edition: Business

POL/ENV/GralInt-Venezuela’s Amazonas state-Lawless rivers and forests

The following information is used for educational purposes only.


Venezuela’s Amazonas state


Lawless rivers and forests

The difficulty of being an opposition governor


Nov 30th 2013 | PUERTO AYACUCHO









































THE gaudily painted perimeter wall of the army barracks in Puerto Ayacucho, the capital of Amazonas state, leaves no doubt as to the political sympathies of its commanding general. “The 52nd Jungle Infantry Brigade is Chavista Too”, it proclaims, in defiance of constitutional strictures about military neutrality. The slogan—a reference to Venezuela’s late president Hugo Chávez and the regime he founded—is a daily slap in the face for the state governor, Liborio Guarulla.

Chávez’s successor as president, Nicolás Maduro, has waged a campaign to throttle the administration of Mr Guarulla, one of just three opposition governors across the country’s 23 states. It is a foretaste of what the opposition can expect if it triumphs in mayoral elections on December 8th—which have turned into an unofficial plebiscite on Mr Maduro’s shambolic and increasingly authoritarian rule.


He claims that Amazonas is in a “critical” condition because of the negligence of the state authorities. He has set up a parallel administration under Nicia Maldonado, a former minister for indigenous affairs, who was trounced by Mr Guarulla in an election last December. Ms Maldonado, the governor’s people say, has a budget bigger than his. Venezuelan states depend almost entirely on the centre for their revenues; there is little to stop the president employing creative accounting and delays in disbursements to make the governor look bad.

The result is that Mr Guarulla says he owes around 200m bolívares (over $30m at the official exchange rate) in salaries. The state police, the airport, a newly built hospital and the main hotel in Puerto Ayacucho have all been taken out of his hands. In July the 52nd Jungle Infantry showed up to snatch a state agency for children, but a crowd of the governor’s supporters forced a retreat. Four local radio stations, including one run by the state government, have been closed down and had their equipment seized.

Amazonas has many problems, but those most cited by local people are mainly the responsibility of central government. Frequent and lengthy power-cuts, unpunished violent crime, a precarious air link with Caracas and an almost non-existent internet service are among them. Outside Puerto Ayacucho, in the jungle that extends almost unbroken to the Brazilian border, an even darker mood prevails in the scattered Amerindian villages. Illegal mining is destroying the forest and polluting the water. The armed forces, whose duties include environmental protection, are accused by the Amerindians of complicity with the illegal miners and with the guerrillas of Colombia’s FARC, who have shifted their camps to Venezuela to evade military pressure at home.

“The guerrillas ordered the villagers not to go out at night,” says Uriel Blanco of OPIJKA, an organisation that defends the rights of the Jivi tribe. In the early hours, community leaders claim, boats laden with fuel and food head upriver to guerrilla camps. Neither these boats nor the miners seem to have problems with checkpoints run by Mr Maduro’s National Guard. But the guard seizes game from Amerindian hunters, as well as any fuel or processed food for which they lack receipts. The state’s Catholic bishop, José Angel Divasson, says that for the FARC, Amazonas is more than just a refuge: “It’s clear that they are trafficking drugs. Why else would they need 500-metre airstrips? The light planes go over [to Colombia] with guns and they come back with drugs.”

The cocaine business, along with illegal mining of gold and coltan, a mineral used in the manufacture of electronic devices, creates an almost insatiable demand for petrol and diesel, which are heavily subsidised by the Venezuelan government. The official price of a 200-gallon drum of petrol is just 14 bolívares. But once it leaves the river-port of Samariapo, it sells for at least 2,000 bolívares on the black market. By the time it gets to San Carlos de Río Negro, near the Brazilian border, it can cost five times that. Permits to buy fuel are controlled by the army.

“We get diesel for our generator once a month,” says a villager. “That gives us six hours of electricity.” Shops on the Colombian side of the river are well-stocked with subsidised Venezuelan food, while the people for whom it was intended go hungry. Amerindian groups have demanded a meeting with the president, but there has been no reply.









Source: www.economist.com/From the print edition: The Americas

TECH/MON/GralInt-Bitcoin under pressure

The following information is used for educational purposes only.



Technology Quarterly: Q4 2013



Bitcoin

Bitcoin under pressure


Virtual currency: It is mathematically elegant, increasingly popular and highly controversial. Bitcoin’s success is putting it under growing strain





























Nov 30th 2013



ALL currencies involve some measure of consensual hallucination, but Bitcoin, a virtual monetary system, involves more than most. It is a peer-to-peer currency with no central bank, based on digital tokens with no intrinsic value. Rather than relying on confidence in a central authority, it depends instead on a distributed system of trust, based on a transaction ledger which is cryptographically verified and jointly maintained by the currency’s users.

Transactions can occur directly between the system’s participants at almost zero cost, without the need for a trusted third party or any other intermediary, and are irreversible once committed to a permanent and fully public record. Bitcoin’s mathematically elegant design ensures that the money supply can increase only at a fixed rate that slows over time and then stops altogether. Anonymity, while not assured, is possible with the right precautions and tools. No wonder Bitcoin is so appealing to geeks, libertarians, drug dealers, speculators and gold bugs.


Bitcoin began in 2008, at the height of the financial crisis, with a paper published under the pseudonym Satoshi Nakamoto. The technical design outlined in the paper was implemented in open-source software the following year. It came to widespread prominence in 2012 and has been in the headlines ever since.

Investors are backing Bitcoin-related startups, the German finance ministry has recognised it as a “unit of account” and senior officials told an American Senate committee on November 18th that virtual currencies had legitimate uses. But there have also been many cases of Bitcoin theft. Exchanges that convert Bitcoin to other currencies have collapsed or closed. Silk Road, an online forum where illicit goods and services are traded for Bitcoin, was shut down by America’s Federal Bureau of Investigation in October but has since reopened. The Bitcoin price has fluctuated wildly, hitting $230 in April 2013, falling below $70 in July, and then exceeding $600 in November, prompting talk of a bubble.

The system is now straining at the seams. Its computational underpinnings have collectively reached 100 times the performance of the world’s top 500 supercomputers combined: more than 50,000 petaflops. Bitcoin’s success has revealed three weaknesses in particular. It is not as secure and anonymous as it seems; the “mining” system that both increases the Bitcoin supply and ensures the integrity of the currency has led to an unsustainable computational arms-race; and the distributed-ledger system is becoming unwieldy. Will Bitcoin’s self-correcting mechanisms, and the enlightened self-interest of its users, be able to address these weaknesses and keep Bitcoin on the rails?

Bitcoin uses a technique called public-key cryptography, which relies on creating an interlocking pair of encryption keys: a public key that can be freely distributed, and a private one that must be kept secret at all costs. The public key is treated as an address to which value may be sent, akin to an account number. Each transaction involves the paying party signing over a portion or all of the value in one of these addresses by using his private key to perform an operation, called “signing”, on the contents of the transfer, which includes the recipient’s address. Anyone can use the sender’s public key to verify that the sender’s private key signed the transaction. All transactions are appended to a public ledger, called the block chain.

Public keys are ostensibly anonymous, because they are created randomly by software under the control of each user, without central co-ordination. But it turns out that the flow of money from specific addresses can be tracked quite easily. In a paper presented in October, academics from the University of California, San Diego, and George Mason University engaged in a series of ordinary transactions to collect commonly used addresses for Bitcoin wallet services, gambling sites, currency exchanges and other parties.

Follow the money


The researchers exploited a current weakness in most Bitcoin personal and server software, which generates single-use addresses to store change from transactions. This allowed them to follow the movement of Bitcoins across hundreds of transactions from large sums accumulated at single addresses, including ones suspected of being controlled by Silk Road and stolen funds from exchanges. One of the authors, Sarah Meiklejohn, says that the same technique could easily be used to provide the basis of warrants to serve against exchanges or other parties. Law-enforcement agencies would regard this as a good thing, but to advocates of a completely secure and anonymous online currency, it represents a worrying flaw. Ms Meiklejohn says most current implementations of the Bitcoin protocol fall short of the level of anonymity that is theoretically possible, and that her group’s efforts represent just the tip of the iceberg of what could be deduced from analysis of the public block chain.

The Bitcoin system offers a reward to volunteer users, known as “miners”, who bundle up new transactions into blocks and add them on to the end of the chain. The reward is currently 25 Bitcoins (about $15,000 at this writing). Miners pull active transactions waiting to be recorded from the peer-to-peer network and perform the complex calculations to create the new block, building on the cryptographic foundation of the previous block. Comparison of the results produced by different miners provides independent verification. About every 10 minutes, one lucky miner who has generated the next block is granted the 25-Bitcoin reward, and the new block is appended to the chain. The process then starts again.

Mine craft































The Bitcoin system is designed to cope with the fact that improvements in computer hardware make it cheaper and faster to perform the mathematical operations, known as hashes, involved in mining. Every 2,016 blocks, or roughly every two weeks, the system calculates how long it would take for blocks to be created at precisely 10-minute intervals, and resets a difficulty factor in the calculation accordingly. As equipment gets faster, in short, mining gets harder. But faster equipment is constantly coming online, reducing the potential rewards for other miners unless they, too, buy more kit. Miners have formed groups that pool processing power and parcel out the ensuing rewards. Once done with ordinary computers, mining shifted to graphics-processing units, which can perform some calculations more efficiently. Miners then moved on to flexible chips that can be configured for particular tasks, called field-programmable gate arrays. In the past year, bespoke chips called ASICs (application-specific integrated circuits) have appeared on the scene.

Your correspondent visited a miner who operates a rack of mining hardware in his modest apartment. He had purchased his ASIC-based hardware a few months earlier, and it had arrived weeks late, causing him to miss out on a bonanza, because after arrival, the kit generated Bitcoins so quickly that it paid for itself within three days. But the edge that ASICs provide is quickly eroding. Between July, when the gear arrived, and mid-November, the computational capacity of the Bitcoin network increased 25-fold, from 200 trillion to 5 quadrillion hashes per second. This was due in part to the arrival in September of a newer generation of more efficient ASICs. Hashing capacity has increased so rapidly in 2013 that the practice of hijacking thousands of PCs and using them for mining is no longer worth the effort. The average time between blocks has fallen to between five and eight minutes.

The general consensus, says Mike Hearn, one of the volunteers who maintain the Bitcoin software, is that with this new generation of ASICs, mining will have approached a point where only those with access to free or cheap electricity will continue operations, and even they will produce a relatively marginal return on investment, rather than the huge multiples (when exchanged into traditional currency) possible even earlier this year. Mining has become increasingly commercial and professional, he says. Server farms with endless racks of ASIC cards have already sprung up. But as part of Bitcoin’s design, the reward for mining a block halves every 210,000 blocks, or roughly every four years. Sometime in 2017, at the current rate, it will drop to 12.5 Bitcoins. If the returns from mining decline, who will verify the integrity of the block chain?

To head off this problem, a market-based mechanism is in the works which will raise the current voluntary fees paid by users (around five cents per transaction) in return for verification. “Nodes in the peer-to-peer network will try to estimate the minimum fee needed to get the transaction confirmed,” says Mr Hearn.

Bitcoin’s growing popularity is having other ripple effects. Every participant in the system must keep a copy of the block chain, which now exceeds 11 gigabytes in size and continues to grow steadily. This alone deters casual use. Bitcoin’s designer proposed a method of pruning the chain to include only unspent amounts, but it has not been implemented.

As the rate of transactions increases, squeezing all financial activity into the preset size limit for each block has started to become problematic. The protocol may need to be tweaked to allow more transactions per block, among other changes. A further problem relates to the volunteer machines, or nodes, that allow Bitcoin to function. These nodes relay transactions and transmit updates to the block chain. But, says Matthew Green, a security researcher at Johns Hopkins University, the ecosystem provides no compensation for maintaining these nodes—only for mining. The rising cost of operating nodes could jeopardise Bitcoin’s ability to scale.

“The volunteer programmers who work on Bitcoin’s software have no special authority in the system.”

The original paper that sparked the creation of Bitcoin has since been supplemented by layers of agreed-upon protocol, updated regularly by the system’s participants. The protocol, like the currency, is a fiction they accept as real, because rejection by a large proportion of users—be they banks, exchanges, speculators or miners—could cause the whole system to collapse. Mr Hearn notes that he and other programmers who work on Bitcoin’s software have no special authority in the system. Instead, proposals are floated, implemented in software, and must then be taken up by 80% of nodes before becoming permanent—at which point blocks from other nodes are rejected. “The rules of the system are not set in stone,” he says. The adoption of improvements is up to the community. Bitcoin is thus both flexible and fragile.

So far, it has kept going. But can it withstand the pressure as it becomes more popular? “It’s got this kind of watch-like feel to it,” says Mr Hearn. It keeps on ticking, but “a mechanical watch is fragile and can be smashed.” Perhaps Bitcoin, like the internet, will smoothly evolve from a quirky experiment to a trusted utility. But it could also go the way of Napster, the trailblazing music-sharing system that pioneered a new category, but was superseded by superior implementations that overcame its technical and commercial flaws.

Source: www.economist.com/From the print edition: Technology Quarterly

GralInt/ART-Las aventuras del bebé durmiente que enternecen a la Web

The following information is used for educational purposes only.




Las aventuras del bebé durmiente que enternecen a la Web


La madre aprovechó los momentos en que su bebé dormía para convertirlo en protagonista de curiosos cuadros. Mirá el video.


29/11/13





Con un poco de imaginación, paciencia y dedicación, la artista china Queenie Liao aprovechó los minutos en que su hijo Wengenn dormía, para transformarlo en un verdadero “aventurero durmiente”.

Es que la mujer, utilizando elementos como telas, cibnturones, papeles, etc., comenzó a insertar a su pequeño en paisajes increíbles.

Así, su pequeño se transformó -durante sus horas de sueño- en un cocinero, un gigante, en Tarzán y hasta en un periodista que entrevista a Barack Obama.

Según el diario británico Mirror, la foto favorita de la mujer es la que el pequeño quiere alcanzar las estrellas. “Las estrellas son símbolos de los sueños y metas en la vida. Quiero ver a Wengenn crecer alcanzando todas sus metas y sueños”.

Además, explicó que su visión “fue crear una serie de fotos en los que esté explorando un mundo encantador, de cuento de hadas”.

A pesar de haber saltado a la fama, la artista confesó que se inspiró en fotos de Adele Enersen, que le sacó fotos a su hija Mila. “Empecé a experimentar con ideas similares cuando Wengenn tenía tres meses de edad”, enfatizó.

Según contó, a veces el trabajo duraba más que el descanso del chico, por lo que todo quedaba para otra ocasión. Las mejores imágenes las recopiló en el libro "Sleepy Baby".

























Fuente: www.clarin.com/agencias/Source: www.youtube.com

Monday, November 25, 2013

PSYCH/GralInt-TED Talks-Peter Doolittle: How your "working memory" makes sense of the world

The following information is used for educational purposes only.



Peter Doolittle: How your "working memory" makes sense of the world

Filmed Jun 2013 • Posted Nov 2013 • TEDGlobal 2013




"Life comes at us very quickly, and what we need to do is take that amorphous flow of experience and somehow extract meaning from it." In this funny, enlightening talk, educational psychologist Peter Doolittle details the importance -- and limitations -- of your "working memory," that part of the brain that allows us to make sense of what's happening right now.

Peter Doolittle is striving to understand the processes of human learning.

















































Transcript:




So yesterday, I was out in the street in front of this building, and I was walking down the sidewalk, and I had company, several of us, and we were all abiding by the rules of walking down sidewalks. We're not talking each other. We're facing forward. We're moving. When the person in front of me slows down. And so I'm watching him, and he slows down, and finally he stops. Well, that wasn't fast enough for me, so I put on my turn signal, and I walked around him, and as I walked, I looked to see what he was doing, and he was doing this. He was texting, and he couldn't text and walk at the same time. Now we could approach this from a working memory perspective or from a multitasking perspective. We're going to do working memory today.

Now, working memory is that part of our consciousness that we are aware of at any given time of day. You're going it right now. It's not something we can turn off. If you turn it off, that's called a coma, okay? So right now, you're doing just fine.

Now working memory has four basic components. It allows us to store some immediate experiences and a little bit of knowledge. It allows us to reach back into our long-term memory and pull some of that in as we need it, mixes it, processes it in light of whatever our current goal is. Now the current goal isn't something like, I want to be president or the best surfer in the world. It's more mundane. I'd like that cookie, or I need to figure out how to get into my hotel room. Now working memory capacity is our ability to leverage that, our ability to take what we know and what we can hang onto and leverage it in ways that allow us to satisfy our current goal.

Now working memory capacity has a fairly long history, and it's associated with a lot of positive effects. People with high working memory capacity tend to be good storytellers. They tend to solve and do well on standardized tests, however important that is. They're able to have high levels of writing ability. They're also able to reason at high levels.

So what we're going to do here is play a little bit with some of that. So I'm going to ask you to perform a couple tasks, and we're going to take your working memory out for a ride. You up for that? Okay.

I'm going to give you five words, and I just want you to hang on to them. Don't write them down. Just hang on to them. Five words. While you're hanging on to them, I'm going to ask you to answer three questions. I want to see what happens with those words. So here's the words: tree, highway, mirror, Saturn and electrode. So far so good? Okay. What I want you to do is I want you to tell me what the answer is to 23 times eight. Just shout it out. (Mumbling) (Laughter) In fact it's -- (Mumbling) -- exactly. (Laughter) All right. I want you to take out your left hand and I want you to go, "One, two, three, four, five, six, seven, eight, nine, 10." It's a neurological test, just in case you were wondering. All right, now what I want you to do is to recite the last five letters of the English alphabet backwards. You should have started with Z. (Laughter)

All right. How many people here are still pretty sure you've got all five words? Okay. Typically we end up with about less than half, right, which is normal. There will be a range. Some people can hang on to five. Some people can hang on to 10. Some will be down to two or three.

What we know is this is really important to the way we function, right? And it's going to be really important here at TED because you're going to be exposed to so many different ideas.

Now the problem that we have is that life comes at us, and it comes at us very quickly, and what we need to do is to take that amorphous flow of experience and somehow extract meaning from it with a working memory that's about the size of a pea. Now don't get me wrong, working memory is awesome. Working memory allows us to investigate our current experience as we move forward. It allows us to make sense of the world around us. But it does have certain limits.

Now working memory is great for allowing us to communicate. We can have a conversation, and I can build a narrative around that so I know where we've been and where we're going and how to contribute to this conversation. It allows us to problem-solve, critical think. We can be in the middle of a meeting, listen to somebody's presentation, evaluate it, decide whether or not we like it, ask follow-up questions. All of that occurs within working memory. It also allows us to go to the store and allows us to get milk and eggs and cheese when what we're really looking for is Red Bull and bacon. (Laughter) Gotta make sure we're getting what we're looking for. Now, a central issue with working memory is that it's limited. It's limited in capacity, limited in duration, limited in focus. We tend to remember about four things. Okay? It used to be seven, but with functional MRIs, apparently it's four, and we were overachieving. Now we can remember those four things for about 10 to 20 seconds unless we do something with it, unless we process it, unless we apply it to something, unless we talk to somebody about it.

When we think about working memory, we have to realize that this limited capacity has lots of different impacts on us. Have you ever walked from one room to another and then forgotten why you're there? You do know the solution to that, right? You go back to that original room. (Laughter) Have you ever forgotten your keys? You ever forgotten your car? You ever forgotten your kids? Have you ever been involved in a conversation, and you realize that the conversation to your left is actually more interesting? (Laughter) So you're nodding and you're smiling, but you're really paying attention to this one over here, until you hear that last word go up, and you realize, you've been asked a question. (Laughter) And you're really hoping the answer is no, because that's what you're about to say. All of that talks about working memory, what we can do and what we can't do. We need to realize that working memory has a limited capacity, and that working memory capacity itself is how we negotiate that. We negotiate that through strategies.

So what I want to do is talk a little bit about a couple of strategies here, and these will be really important because you are now in an information target-rich environment for the next several days. Now the first part of this that we need to think about and we need to process our existence, our life, immediately and repeatedly. We need to process what's going on the moment it happens, not 10 minutes later, not a week later, at the moment. So we need to think about, well, do I agree with him? What's missing? What would I like to know? Do I agree with the assumptions? How can I apply this in my life? It's a way of processing what's going on so that we can use it later. Now we also need to repeat it. We need to practice. So we need to think about it here. In between, we want to talk to people about it. We're going to write it down, and when you get home, pull out those notes and think about them and end up practicing over time. Practice for some reason became a very negative thing. It's very positive.

The next thing is, we need to think elaboratively and we need to think illustratively. Oftentimes, we think that we have to relate new knowledge to prior knowledge. What we want to do is spin that around. We want to take all of our existence and wrap it around that new knowledge and make all of these connections and it becomes more meaningful. We also want to use imagery. We are built for images. We need to take advantage of that. Think about things in images, write things down that way. If you read a book, pull things up. I just got through reading "The Great Gatsby," and I have a perfect idea of what he looks like in my head, so my own version.

The last one is organization and support. We are meaning-making machines. It's what we do. We try to make meaning out of everything that happens to us. Organization helps, so we need to structure what we're doing in ways that make sense. If we are providing knowledge and experience, we need to structure that.

And the last one is support. We all started as novices. Everything we do is an approximation of sophistication. We should expect it to change over time. We have to support that. The support may come in asking people questions, giving them a sheet of paper that has an organizational chart on it or has some guiding images, but we need to support it.

Now, the final piece of this, the take-home message from a working memory capacity standpoint is this: what we process, we learn. If we're not processing life, we're not living it. Live life. Thank you.

(Applause)

TRANSP/GralInt-TED Talks-Andreas Raptopoulos: No roads? There’s a drone for that

The following information is used for educational purposes only.



Andreas Raptopoulos: No roads? There’s a drone for that


Filmed Jun 2013 • Posted Nov 2013 • TEDGlobal 2013




A billion people in the world lack access to all-season roads. Could the structure of the internet provide a model for how to reach them? Andreas Raptopoulos of Matternet thinks so. He introduces a new type of transportation system that uses electric autonomous flying machines to deliver medicine, food, goods and supplies wherever they are needed.

Andreas Raptopoulos and his colleagues are building the flying internet of things, using drones to carry essential goods to otherwise inaccessible areas.




















































Transcript:

One billion people in the world today do not have access to all-season roads. One billion people. One seventh of the Earth's population are totally cut off for some part of the year. We cannot get medicine to them reliably, they cannot get critical supplies, and they cannot get their goods to market in order to create a sustainable income. In sub-Saharan Africa, for instance, 85 percent of roads are unusable in the wet season. Investments are being made, but at the current level, it's estimated it's going to take them 50 years to catch up. In the U.S. alone, there's more than four million miles of roads, very expensive to build, very expensive to maintain infrastructure, with a huge ecological footprint, and yet, very often, congested.

So we saw this and we thought, can there be a better way? Can we create a system using today's most advanced technologies that can allow this part of the world to leapfrog in the same way they've done with mobile telephones in the last 10 years? Many of those nations have excellent telecommunications today without ever putting copper lines in the ground. Could we do the same for transportation?

Imagine this scenario. Imagine you are in a maternity ward in Mali, and have a newborn in need of urgent medication. What would you do today? Well, you would place a request via mobile phone, and someone would get the request immediately. That's the part that works. The medication may take days to arrive, though, because of bad roads. That's the part that's broken.

We believe we can deliver it within hours with an electric autonomous flying vehicle such as this. This can transport a small payload today, about two kilograms, over a short distance, about 10 kilometers, but it's part of a wider network that may cover the entire country, maybe even the entire continent. It's an ultra-flexible, automated logistics network. It's a network for a transportation of matter. We call it Matternet.

We use three key technologies. The first is electric autonomous flying vehicles. The second is automated ground stations that the vehicles fly in and out of to swap batteries and fly farther, or pick up or deliver loads. And the third is the operating system that manages the whole network.

Let's look at each one of those technologies in a bit more detail. First of all, the UAVs. Eventually, we're going to be using all sorts of vehicles for different payload capacities and different ranges. Today, we're using small quads. These are able to transport two kilograms over 10 kilometers in just about 15 minutes. Compare this with trying to trespass a bad road in the developing world, or even being stuck in traffic in a developed world country. These fly autonomously. This is the key to the technology. So they use GPS and other sensors on board to navigate between ground stations. Every vehicle is equipped with an automatic payload and battery exchange mechanism, so these vehicles navigate to those ground stations, they dock, swap a battery automatically, and go out again. The ground stations are located on safe locations on the ground. They secure the most vulnerable part of the mission, which is the landing. They are at known locations on the ground, so the paths between them are also known, which is very important from a reliability perspective from the whole network. Apart from fulfilling the energy requirements of the vehicles, eventually they're going to be becoming commercial hubs where people can take out loads or put loads into the network. The last component is the operating system that manages the whole network. It monitors weather data from all the ground stations and optimizes the routes of the vehicles through the system to avoid adverse weather conditions, avoid other risk factors, and optimize the use of the resources throughout the network.

I want to show you what one of those flights looks like. Here we are flying in Haiti last summer, where we've done our first field trials. We're modeling here a medical delivery in a camp we set up after the 2010 earthquake. People there love this.

And I want to show you what one of those vehicles looks like up close. So this is a $3,000 vehicle. Costs are coming down very rapidly. We use this in all sorts of weather conditions, very hot and very cold climates, very strong winds. They're very sturdy vehicles. Imagine if your life depended on this package, somewhere in Africa or in New York City, after Sandy. The next big question is, what's the cost?

Well, it turns out that the cost to transport two kilograms over 10 kilometers with this vehicle is just 24 cents.

(Applause)

And it's counterintuitive, but the cost of energy expended for the flight is only two cents of a dollar today, and we're just at the beginning of this. When we saw this, we felt that this is something that can have significant impact in the world.

So we said, okay, how much does it cost to set up a network somewhere in the world? And we looked at setting up a network in Lesotho for transportation of HIV/AIDS samples. The problem there is how do you take them from clinics where they're being collected to hospitals where they're being analyzed? And we said, what if we wanted to cover an area spanning around 140 square kilometers? That's roughly one and a half times the size of Manhattan. Well it turns out that the cost to do that there would be less than a million dollars. Compare this to normal infrastructure investments. We think this can be -- this is the power of a new paradigm.

So here we are: a new idea about a network for transportation that is based on the ideas of the Internet. It's decentralized, it's peer-to-peer, it's bidirectional, highly adaptable, with very low infrastructure investment, very low ecological footprint. If it is a new paradigm, though, there must be other uses for it. It can be used perhaps in other places in the world.

So let's look at the other end of the spectrum: our cities and megacities. Half of the Earth's population lives in cities today. Half a billion of us live in megacities. We are living through an amazing urbanization trend. China alone is adding a megacity the size of New York City every two years. These are places that do have road infrastructure, but it's very inefficient. Congestion is a huge problem. So we think it makes sense in those places to set up a network of transportation that is a new layer that sits between the road and the Internet, initially for lightweight, urgent stuff, and over time, we would hope to develop this into a new mode of transportation that is truly a modern solution to a very old problem. It's ultimately scalable with a very small ecological footprint, operating in the background 24/7, just like the Internet.

So when we started this a couple of years ago now, we've had a lot of people come up to us who said, "This is a very interesting but crazy idea, and certainly not something that you should engage with anytime soon." And of course, we're talking about drones, right, a technology that's not only unpopular in the West but one that has become a very, very unpleasant fact of life for many living in poor countries, especially those engaged in conflict.

So why are we doing this? Well, we chose to do this one not because it's easy, but because it can have amazing impact. Imagine one billion people being connected to physical goods in the same way that mobile telecommunications connected them to information. Imagine if the next big network we built in the world was a network for the transportation of matter. In the developing world, we would hope to reach millions of people with better vaccines, reach them with better medication. It would give us an unfair advantage against battling HIV/AIDS, tuberculosis and other epidemics. Over time, we would hope it would become a new platform for economic transactions, lifting millions of people out of poverty. In the developed world and the emerging world, we would hope it would become a new mode of transportation that could help make our cities more livable.

So for those that still believe that this is science fiction, I firmly say to you that it is not. We do need to engage, though, in social fiction to make it happen.

Thank you.

(Applause)

ECO/TECH/GralInt-TED Talks-Greg Asner: Ecology from the air

The following information is used for educational purposes only.




Greg Asner: Ecology from the air

Filmed Jun 2013 • Posted Nov 2013 • TEDGlobal 2013


What are our forests really made of? From the air, ecologist Greg Asner uses a spectrometer and high-powered lasers to map nature in meticulous kaleidoscopic 3D detail -- what he calls “a very high-tech accounting system” of carbon. In this fascinating talk, Asner gives a clear message: To save our ecosystems, we need more data, gathered in new ways.

Greg Asner’s mapping technology produces detailed, complex pictures of how humans’ activities affect our ecosystems.





















































Transcript:



Technology can change our understanding of nature.

Take for example the case of lions. For centuries, it's been said that female lions do all of the hunting out in the open savanna, and male lions do nothing until it's time for dinner. You've heard this too, I can tell. Well recently, I led an airborne mapping campaign in the Kruger National Park in South Africa. Our colleagues put GPS tracking collars on male and female lions, and we mapped their hunting behavior from the air. The lower left shows a lion sizing up a herd of impala for a kill, and the right shows what I call the lion viewshed. That's how far the lion can see in all directions until his or her view is obstructed by vegetation. And what we found is that male lions are not the lazy hunters we thought them to be. They just use a different strategy. Whereas the female lions hunt out in the open savanna over long distances, usually during the day, male lions use an ambush strategy in dense vegetation, and often at night. This video shows the actual hunting viewsheds of male lions on the left and females on the right. Red and darker colors show more dense vegetation, and the white are wide open spaces. And this is the viewshed right literally at the eye level of hunting male and female lions. All of a sudden, you get a very clear understanding of the very spooky conditions under which male lions do their hunting.

I bring up this example to begin, because it emphasizes how little we know about nature. There's been a huge amount of work done so far to try to slow down our losses of tropical forests, and we are losing our forests at a rapid rate, as shown in red on the slide. I find it ironic that we're doing so much, yet these areas are fairly unknown to science. So how can we save what we don't understand?

Now I'm a global ecologist and an Earth explorer with a background in physics and chemistry and biology and a lot of other boring subjects, but above all, I'm obsessed with what we don't know about our planet. So I created this, the Carnegie Airborne Observatory, or CAO. It may look like a plane with a fancy paint job, but I packed it with over 1,000 kilos of high-tech sensors, computers, and a very motivated staff of Earth scientists and pilots. Two of our instruments are very unique: one is called an imaging spectrometer that can actually measure the chemical composition of plants as we fly over them. Another one is a set of lasers, very high-powered lasers, that fire out of the bottom of the plane, sweeping across the ecosystem and measuring it at nearly 500,000 times per second in high-resolution 3D. Here's an image of the Golden Gate Bridge in San Francisco, not far from where I live. Although we flew straight over this bridge, we imaged it in 3D, captured its color in just a few seconds. But the real power of the CAO is its ability to capture the actual building blocks of ecosystems. This is a small town in the Amazon, imaged with the CAO. We can slice through our data and see, for example, the 3D structure of the vegetation and the buildings, or we can use the chemical information to actually figure out how fast the plants are growing as we fly over them. The hottest pinks are the fastest-growing plants. And we can see biodiversity in ways that you never could have imagined. This is what a rainforest might look like as you fly over it in a hot air balloon. This is how we see a rainforest, in kaleidoscopic color that tells us that there are many species living with one another. But you have to remember that these trees are literally bigger than whales, and what that means is that they're impossible to understand just by walking on the ground below them. So our imagery is 3D, it's chemical, it's biological, and this tells us not only the species that are living in the canopy, but it tells us a lot of information about the rest of the species that occupy the rainforest.

Now I created the CAO in order to answer questions that have proven extremely challenging to answer from any other vantage point, such as from the ground, or from satellite sensors. I want to share three of those questions with you today. The first questions is, how do we manage our carbon reserves in tropical forests? Tropical forests contain a huge amount of carbon in the trees, and we need to keep that carbon in those forests if we're going to avoid any further global warming. Unfortunately, global carbon emissions from deforestation now equals the global transportation sector. That's all ships, airplanes, trains and automobiles combined. So it's understandable that policy negotiators have been working hard to reduce deforestation, but they're doing it on landscapes that are hardly known to science. If you don't know where the carbon is exactly, in detail, how can you know what you're losing? Basically, we need a high-tech accounting system. With our system, we're able to see the carbon stocks of tropical forests in utter detail. The red shows, obviously, closed-canopy tropical forest, and then you see the cookie cutting, or the cutting of the forest in yellows and greens. It's like cutting a cake except this cake is about whale deep. And yet, we can zoom in and see the forest and the trees at the same time. And what's amazing is, even though we flew very high above this forest, later on in analysis, we can go in and actually experience the treetrops, leaf by leaf, branch by branch, just as the other species that live in this forest experience it along with the trees themselves.

We've been using the technology to explore and to actually put out the first carbon geographies in high resolution in faraway places like the Amazon Basin and not-so-faraway places like the United States and Central America. What I'm going to do is I'm going to take you on a high-resolution, first-time tour of the carbon landscapes of Peru and then Panama. The colors are going to be going from red to blue. Red is extremely high carbon stocks, your largest cathedral forests you can imagine, and blue are very low carbon stocks. And let me tell you, Peru alone is an amazing place, totally unknown in terms of its carbon geography until today. We can fly to this area in northern Peru and see super high carbon stocks in red, and the Amazon River and floodplain cutting right through it. We can go to an area of utter devastation caused by deforestation in blue, and the virus of deforestation spreading out in orange. We can also fly to the southern Andes to see the tree line and see exactly how the carbon geography ends as we go up into the mountain system. And we can go to the biggest swamp in the western Amazon. It's a watery dreamworld akin to Jim Cameron's "Avatar." We can go to one of the smallest tropical countries, Panama, and see also a huge range of carbon variation, from high in red to low in blue. Unfortunately, most of the carbon is lost in the lowlands, but what you see that's left, in terms of high carbon stocks in greens and reds, is the stuff that's up in the mountains. One interesting exception to this is right in the middle of your screen. You're seeing the buffer zone around the Panama Canal. That's in the reds and yellows. The canal authorities are using force to protect their watershed and global commerce. This kind of carbon mapping has transformed conservation and resource policy development. It's really advancing our ability to save forests and to curb climate change.

My second question: How do we prepare for climate change in a place like the Amazon rainforest? Let me tell you, I spend a lot of time in these places, and we're seeing the climate changing already. Temperatures are increasing, and what's really happening is we're getting a lot of droughts, recurring droughts. The 2010 mega-drought is shown here with red showing an area about the size of Western Europe. The Amazon was so dry in 2010 that even the main stem of the Amazon river itself dried up partially, as you see in the photo in the lower portion of the slide. What we found is that in very remote areas, these droughts are having a big negative impact on tropical forests. For example, these are all of the dead trees in red that suffered mortality following the 2010 drought. This area happens to be on the border of Peru and Brazil, totally unexplored, almost totally unknown scientifically.

So what we think, as Earth scientists, is species are going to have to migrate with climate change from the east in Brazil all the way west into the Andes and up into the mountains in order to minimize their exposure to climate change. One of the problems with this is that humans are taking apart the western Amazon as we speak. Look at this 100-square-kilometer gash in the forest created by gold miners. You see the forest in green in 3D, and you see the effects of gold mining down below the soil surface. Species have nowhere to migrate in a system like this, obviously.

If you haven't been to the Amazon, you should go. It's an amazing experience every time, no matter where you go. You're going to probably see it this way, on a river. But what happens is a lot of times the rivers hide what's really going on back in the forest itself. We flew over this same river, imaged the system in 3D. The forest is on the left. And then we can digitally remove the forest and see what's going on below the canopy. And in this case, we found gold mining activity, all of it illegal, set back away from the river's edge, as you'll see in those strange pockmarks coming up on your screen on the right. Don't worry, we're working with the authorities to deal with this and many, many other problems in the region.

So in order to put together a conservation plan for these unique, important corridors like the western Amazon and the Andes Amazon corridor, we have to start making geographically explicit plans now. How do we do that if we don't know the geography of biodiversity in the region, if it's so unknown to science? So what we've been doing is using the laser-guided spectroscopy from the CAO to map for the first time the biodiversity of the Amazon rainforest. Here you see actual data showing different species in different colors. Reds are one type of species, blues are another, and greens are yet another. And when we take this together and scale up to the regional level, we get a completely new geography of biodiversity unknown prior to this work. This tells us where the big biodiversity changes occur from habitat to habitat, and that's really important because it tells us a lot about where species may migrate to and migrate from as the climate shifts. And this is the pivotal information that's needed by decision makers to develop protected areas in the context of their regional development plans.

And third and final question is, how do we manage biodiversity on a planet of protected ecosystems? The example I started out with about lions hunting, that was a study we did behind the fence line of a protected area in South Africa. And the truth is, much of Africa's nature is going to persist into the future in protected areas like I show in blue on the screen. This puts incredible pressure and responsibility on park management. They need to do and make decisions that will benefit all of the species that they're protecting. Some of their decisions have really big impacts. For example, how much and where to use fire as a management tool? Or, how to deal with a large species like elephants, which may, if their populations get too large, have a negative impact on the ecosystem and on other species. And let me tell you, these types of dynamics really play out on the landscape. In the foreground is an area with lots of fire and lots of elephants: wide open savanna in blue, and just a few trees. As we cross this fence line, now we're getting into an area that has had protection from fire and zero elephants: dense vegetation, a radically different ecosystem. And in a place like Kruger, the soaring elephant densities are a real problem. I know it's a sensitive issue for many of you, and there are no easy answers with this. But what's good is that the technology we've developed and we're working with in South Africa, for example, is allowing us to map every single tree in the savanna, and then through repeat flights we're able to see which trees are being pushed over by elephants, in the red as you see on the screen, and how much that's happening in different types of landscapes in the savanna. That's giving park managers a very first opportunity to use tactical management strategies that are more nuanced and don't lead to those extremes that I just showed you. So really, the way we're looking at protected areas nowadays is to think of it as tending to a circle of life, where we have fire management, elephant management, those impacts on the structure of the ecosystem, and then those impacts affecting everything from insects up to apex predators like lions.

Going forward, I plan to greatly expand the airborne observatory. I'm hoping to actually put the technology into orbit so we can manage the entire planet with technologies like this. Until then, you're going to find me flying in some remote place that you've never heard of. I just want to end by saying that technology is absolutely critical to managing our planet, but even more important is the understanding and wisdom to apply it.

Thank you.

(Applause)

ECO/TECH/GralInt-TED Talks-Lian Pin Koh: A drone's-eye view of conservation

The following information is used for educational purposes only.



Lian Pin Koh: A drone's-eye view of conservation


Filmed Jun 2013 • Posted Nov 2013 • TEDGlobal 2013



Ecologist Lian Pin Koh makes a persuasive case for using drones to protect the world's forests and wildlife. These lightweight autonomous flying vehicles can track animals in their natural habitat, monitor the health of rainforests, even combat crime by detecting poachers via thermal imaging. Added bonus? They're also entirely affordable.

Lian Pin Koh expands conservation efforts by championing the use of low-cost autonomous aerial vehicles.





















































Transcript:

When we think of Nepal, we tend to think of the snow-capped mountains of the Himalayas, the crystal-clear still waters of its alpine lakes, or the huge expanse of its grasslands. What some of us may not realize is that in the Himalayan foothills, where the climate is much warmer and the landscape much greener, there lives a great diversity of wildlife, including the one-horned rhinoceros, the Asian elephant and the Bengal tiger. But unfortunately, these animals are under constant threat from poachers who hunt and kill them for their body parts. To stop the killing of these animals, battalions of soldiers and rangers are sent to protect Nepal's national parks, but that is not an easy task, because these soldiers have to patrol thousands of hectares of forests on foot or elephant backs. It is also risky for these soldiers when they get into gunfights with poachers, and therefore Nepal is always looking for new ways to help with protecting the forests and wildlife.

Well recently, Nepal acquired a new tool in the fight against wildlife crime, and these are drones, or more specifically, conservation drones. For about a year now, my colleagues and I have been building drones for Nepal and training the park protection personnel on the use of these drones. Not only does a drone give you a bird's-eye view of the landscape, but it also allows you to capture detailed, high-resolution images of objects on the ground. This, for example, is a pair of rhinoceros taking a cooling bath on a hot summer day in the lowlands of Nepal. Now we believe that drones have tremendous potential, not only for combating wildlife crime, but also for monitoring the health of these wildlife populations.

So what is a drone? Well, the kind of drone I'm talking about is simply a model aircraft fitted with an autopilot system, and this autopilot unit contains a tiny computer, a GPS, a compass, a barometric altimeter and a few other sensors. Now a drone like this is meant to carry a useful payload, such as a video camera or a photographic camera. It also requires a software that allows the user to program a mission, to tell the drone where to go.

Now people I talk to are often surprised when they hear that these are the only four components that make a conservation drone, but they are even more surprised when I tell them how affordable these components are. The facts is, a conservation drone doesn't cost very much more than a good laptop computer or a decent pair of binoculars.

So now that you've built your own conservation drone, you probably want to go fly it, but how does one fly a drone? Well, actually, you don't, because the drone flies itself. All you have to do is to program a mission to tell the drone where to fly. But you simply do that by clicking on a few way points on the Google Maps interface using the open-source software. Those missions could be as simple as just a few way points, or they could be slightly longer and more complicated, to fly along a river system. Sometimes, we fly the drone in a lawnmower-type pattern and take pictures of that area, and those pictures can be processed to produce a map of that forest. Other researchers might want to fly the drone along the boundaries of a forest to watch out for poachers or people who might be trying to enter the forest illegally.

Now whatever your mission is, once you've programmed it, you simply upload it to the autopilot system, bring your drone to the field, and launch it simply by tossing it in the air. And often we'll go about this mission taking pictures or videos along the way, and usually at that point, we will go grab ourselves a cup of coffee, sit back, and relax for the next few minutes, although some of us sit back and panic for the next few minutes worrying that the drone will not return. Usually it does, and when it does, it even lands automatically.

So what can we do with a conservation drone? Well, when we built our first prototype drone, our main objective was to fly it over a remote rainforest in North Sumatra, Indonesia, to look for the nest of a species of great ape known as the orangutan. The reason we wanted to do that was because we needed to know how many individuals of this species are still left in that forest. Now the traditional method of surveying for orangutans is to walk the forest on foot carrying heavy equipment and to use a pair of binoculars to look up in the treetops where you might find an orangutan or its nest. Now as you can imagine, that is a very time-consuming, labor-intensive, and costly process, so we were hoping that drones could significantly reduce the cost of surveying for orangutan populations in Indonesia and elsewhere in Southeast Asia. So we were very excited when we captured our first pair of orangutan nests on camera. And this is it; this is the first ever picture of orangutan nests taken with a drone. Since then we have taken pictures of dozens of these nests from around various parts of Southeast Asia, and we're now working with computer scientists to develop algorithms that can automatically count the number of nests from the thousands of photos we've collected so far.

But nests are not the only objects these drones can detect. This is a wild orangutan happily feeding on top of a palm tree, seemingly oblivious to our drone that was flying overhead, not once but several times. We've also taken pictures of other animals including forest buffalos in Gabon, elephants, and even turtle nests.

But besides taking pictures of just the animals themselves, we also take pictures of the habitats these animals live in, because we want to keep track of the health of these habitats. Sometimes, we zoom out a little and look at other things that might be happening in the landscape. This is an oil palm plantation in Sumatra. Now oil palm is a major driver of deforestation in that part of the world, so we wanted to use this new drone technology to keep track of the spread of these plantations in Southeast Asia. But drones could also be used to keep track of illegal logging activities. This is a recently logged forest, again in Sumatra. You could even still see the processed wooden planks left on the ground.

But perhaps the most exciting part about taking pictures from the air is we could later stitch these pictures together using special software to create a map of the entire landscape, and this map gives us crucial information for monitoring land use change, to let us know where and when plantations might be expanding, where forests might be contracting, or where fires might be breaking out. Aerial images could also be processed to produce three-dimensional computer models of forests. Now these models are not just visually appealing, but they are also geometrically accurate, which means researchers can now measure the distance between trees, calculate surface area, the volume of vegetation, and so on, all of which are important information for monitoring the health of these forests. Recently, we've also begun experimenting with thermal imaging cameras. Now these cameras can detect heat-emitting objects from the ground, and therefore they are very useful for detecting poachers or their campfires at night.

So I've told you quite a lot about what conservation drones are, how you might operate one of these drones, and what a drone could do for you. I will now tell you where conservation drones are being used around the world. We built our first prototype drones in Switzerland. We brought a few of these to Indonesia for the first few test flights. Since then, we've been building drones for our collaborators from around the world, and these include fellow biologists and partners from major conservation organizations.

Perhaps the best and most rewarding part about working with these collaborators is the feedback they give us on how to improve our drones. Building drones for us is a constant work in progress. We are constantly trying to improve them in terms of their range, their ruggedness, and the amount of payload they can carry. We also work with collaborators to discover new ways of using these drones. For example, camera traps are a common tool used by biologists to take pictures of shy animals hiding in the forests, but these are motion-activated cameras, so they snap a picture every time an animal crosses their path. But the problem with camera traps is that the researcher has to go back to the forest every so often to retrieve those images, and that takes a lot of time, especially if there are dozens or hundreds of these cameras placed in the forest. Now a drone could be designed to perform the task much more efficiently. This drone, carrying a special sensor, could be flown over the forest and remotely download these images from wi-fi–enabled cameras.

Radio collars are another tool that's commonly used by biologists. Now these collars are put onto animals. They transmit a radio signal which allows the researcher to track the movements of these animals across the landscape. But the traditional way of tracking animals is pretty ridiculous, because it requires the researcher to be walking on the ground carrying a huge and cumbersome radio antenna, not unlike those old TV antennae we used to have on our rooftops. Some of us still do. A drone could be used to do the same job much more efficiently. Why not equip a drone with a scanning radio receiver, fly that over the forest canopy in a certain pattern which would allow the user or the operator to triangulate the location of these radio-collared animals remotely without having to step foot in the forest.

A third and perhaps most exciting way of using these drones is to fly them to a really remote, never-explored-before rainforest somewhere hidden in the tropics, and parachute down a tiny spy microphone that would allow us to eavesdrop on the calls of mammals, birds, amphibians, the Yeti, the Sasquatch, Bigfoot, whatever. That would give us biologists a pretty good idea of what animals might be living in those forests.

And finally, I would like to show you the latest version of our conservation drone. The MAJA drone has a wingspan of about two meters. It weighs only about two kilograms, but it can carry half its weight. It is a fully autonomous system. During its mission, it can even transmit a live video feed back to a ground station laptop, which allows the user to see what the drone is seeing in real time. It carries a variety of sensors, and the photo quality of some of these sensors can be as high as one to two centimeters per pixel. This drone can stay in the air for 40 to 60 minutes, which gives it a range of up to 50 kilometers. That is quite sufficient for most of our conservation applications.

Now, conservation drones began as a crazy idea from two biologists who are just deeply passionate about this technology. And we believe, strongly believe, that drones can and will be a game changer for conservation research and applications. We've had our fair share of skeptics and critics who thought that we were just fooling around with toy planes. And in a way, they are right. I mean, let's be honest, drones are the ultimate toys for boys. But at the same time, we've also gotten to know many wonderful colleagues and collaborators who share our vision and see the potential of conservation drones. To us, it is obvious that conservation biologists and practitioners should make full use of every available tool, including drones, in our fight to save the last remaining forests and wildlife of this planet.

Thank you.

(Applause)

Sunday, November 17, 2013

MUSIC-Gal Costa-Acústico

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MUSIC-"Legend" The Best of Bob Marley and the Wailers

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Phrasal Verbs in Business

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GralInt-TED Talks-Chris Downey: Design with the blind in mind

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Chris Downey: Design with the blind in mind


Filmed Oct 2013 • Posted Nov 2013 • TEDCity2.0




What would a city designed for the blind be like? Chris Downey is an architect who went suddenly blind in 2008; he contrasts life in his beloved San Francisco before and after -- and shows how the thoughtful designs that enhance his life now might actually make everyone's life better, sighted or not.

Chris Downey is an architect who lost his sight and gained a new way of seeing the world.


































































Transcript:


So, stepping down out of the bus, I headed back to the corner to head west en route to a braille training session. It was the winter of 2009, and I had been blind for about a year. Things were going pretty well. Safely reaching the other side, I turned to the left, pushed the auto-button for the audible pedestrian signal, and waited my turn. As it went off, I took off and safely got to the other side. Stepping onto the sidewalk, I then heard the sound of a steel chair slide across the concrete sidewalk in front of me. I know there's a cafe on the corner, and they have chairs out in front, so I just adjusted to the left to get closer to the street. As I did, so slid the chair. I just figured I'd made a mistake, and went back to the right, and so slid the chair in perfect synchronicity. Now I was getting a little anxious. I went back to the left, and so slid the chair, blocking my path of travel. Now, I was officially freaking out. So I yelled, "Who the hell's out there? What's going on?" Just then, over my shout, I heard something else, a familiar rattle. It sounded familiar, and I quickly considered another possibility, and I reached out with my left hand, as my fingers brushed against something fuzzy, and I came across an ear, the ear of a dog, perhaps a golden retriever. Its leash had been tied to the chair as her master went in for coffee, and she was just persistent in her efforts to greet me, perhaps get a scratch behind the ear. Who knows, maybe she was volunteering for service. (Laughter)

But that little story is really about the fears and misconceptions that come along with the idea of moving through the city without sight, seemingly oblivious to the environment and the people around you.

So let me step back and set the stage a little bit. On St. Patrick's Day of 2008, I reported to the hospital for surgery to remove a brain tumor. The surgery was successful. Two days later, my sight started to fail. On the third day, it was gone.

Immediately, I was struck by an incredible sense of fear, of confusion, of vulnerability, like anybody would. But as I had time to stop and think, I actually started to realize I had a lot to be grateful for. In particular, I thought about my dad, who had passed away from complications from brain surgery. He was 36. I was seven at the time. So although I had every reason to be fearful of what was ahead, and had no clue quite what was going to happen, I was alive. My son still had his dad. And besides, it's not like I was the first person ever to lose their sight. I knew there had to be all sorts of systems and techniques and training to have to live a full and meaningful, active life without sight.

So by the time I was discharged from the hospital a few days later, I left with a mission, a mission to get out and get the best training as quickly as I could and get on to rebuilding my life. Within six months, I had returned to work. My training had started. I even started riding a tandem bike with my old cycling buddies, and was commuting to work on my own, walking through town and taking the bus. It was a lot of hard work.

But what I didn't anticipate through that rapid transition was the incredible experience of the juxtaposition of my sighted experience up against my unsighted experience of the same places and the same people within such a short period of time.

From that came a lot of insights, or outsights, as I called them, things that I learned since losing my sight. These outsights ranged from the trival to the profound, from the mundane to the humorous. As an architect, that stark juxtaposition of my sighted and unsighted experience of the same places and the same cities within such a short period of time has given me all sorts of wonderful outsights of the city itself. Paramount amongst those was the realization that, actually, cities are fantastic places for the blind. And then I was also surprised by the city's propensity for kindness and care as opposed to indifference or worse. And then I started to realize that it seemed like the blind seemed to have a positive influence on the city itself. That was a little curious to me.

Let me step back and take a look at why the city is so good for the blind. Inherent with the training for recovery from sight loss is learning to rely on all your non-visual senses, things that you would otherwise maybe ignore. It's like a whole new world of sensory information opens up to you. I was really struck by the symphony of subtle sounds all around me in the city that you can hear and work with to understand where you are, how you need to move, and where you need to go. Similarly, just through the grip of the cane, you can feel contrasting textures in the floor below, and over time you build a pattern of where you are and where you're headed. Similarly, just the sun warming one side of your face or the wind at your neck gives you clues about your alignment and your progression through a block and your movement through time and space. But also, the sense of smell. Some districts and cities have their own smell, as do places and things around you, and if you're lucky, you can even follow your nose to that new bakery that you've been looking for.

All this really surprised me, because I started to realize that my unsighted experienced was so far more multi-sensory than my sighted experience ever was. What struck me also was how much the city was changing around me. When you're sighted, everybody kind of sticks to themselves, you mind your own business. Lose your sight, though, and it's a whole other story. And I don't know who's watching who, but I have a suspicion that a lot of people are watching me. And I'm not paranoid, but everywhere I go, I'm getting all sorts of advice: Go here, move there, watch out for this. A lot of the information is good. Some of it's helpful. A lot of it's kind of reversed. You've got to figure out what they actually meant. Some of it's kind of wrong and not helpful. But it's all good in the grand scheme of things.

But one time I was in Oakland walking along Broadway, and came to a corner. I was waiting for an audible pedestrian signal, and as it went off, I was just about to step out into the street, when all of a sudden, my right hand was just gripped by this guy, and he yanked my arm and pulled me out into the crosswalk and was dragging me out across the street, speaking to me in Mandarin. (Laughter) It's like, there was no escape from this man's death grip, but he got me safely there. What could I do? But believe me, there are more polite ways to offer assistance. We don't know you're there, so it's kind of nice to say "Hello" first. "Would you like some help?"

But while in Oakland, I've really been struck by how much the city of Oakland changed as I lost my sight. I liked it sighted. It was fine. It's a perfectly great city. But once I lost my sight and was walking along Broadway, I was blessed every block of the way.

"Bless you, man."

"Go for it, brother."

"God bless you."

I didn't get that sighted. (Laughter) And even without sight, I don't get that in San Francisco. And I know it bothers some of my blind friends, it's not just me. Often it's thought that that's an emotion that comes up out of pity. I tend to think that it comes out of our shared humanity, out of our togetherness, and I think it's pretty cool. In fact, if I'm feeling down, I just go to Broadway in downtown Oakland, I go for a walk, and I feel better like that, in no time at all.

But also that it illustrates how disability and blindness sort of cuts across ethnic, social, racial, economic lines. Disability is an equal-opportunity provider. Everybody's welcome. In fact, I've heard it said in the disability community that there are really only two types of people: There are those with disabilities, and there are those that haven't quite found theirs yet. It's a different way of thinking about it, but I think it's kind of beautiful, because it is certainly far more inclusive than the us-versus-them or the abled-versus-the-disabled, and it's a lot more honest and respectful of the fragility of life.

So my final takeaway for you is that not only is the city good for the blind, but the city needs us. And I'm so sure of that that I want to propose to you today that the blind be taken as the prototypical city dwellers when imagining new and wonderful cities, and not the people that are thought about after the mold has already been cast. It's too late then. So if you design a city with the blind in mind, you'll have a rich, walkable network of sidewalks with a dense array of options and choices all available at the street level. If you design a city with the blind in mind, sidewalks will be predictable and will be generous. The space between buildings will be well-balanced between people and cars. In fact, cars, who needs them? If you're blind, you don't drive. (Laughter) They don't like it when you drive. (Laughter) If you design a city with the blind in mind, you design a city with a robust, accessible, well-connected mass transit system that connects all parts of the city and the region all around. If you design a city with the blind in mind, there'll be jobs, lots of jobs. Blind people want to work too. They want to earn a living.

So, in designing a city for the blind, I hope you start to realize that it actually would be a more inclusive, a more equitable, a more just city for all. And based on my prior sighted experience, it sounds like a pretty cool city, whether you're blind, whether you have a disability, or you haven't quite found yours yet.

So thank you.

(Applause)

ChatGPT, una introducción realista, por Ariel Torres

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